Quantum computing revenue projected to reach US$1.1bn in 2027: Gartner

Recent research from Gartner indicates that worldwide quantum computing revenue is projected to total US$1.1 billion in 2027, and will reach US$869.9 million in 2026, up 22.9% year-over-year.

“Nations and businesses have scaled spending in quantum literacy, patents, partnerships and early use-case exploration,” said Gaurav Gupta, VP Analyst and Chief of Research for the emerging market dynamics research team at Gartner. “While the market still faces challenges, advancements in algorithm development, gate speeds and scaling indicate that breakthroughs are happening more rapidly than initially expected.

“The early quantum advantage era has arrived because noisy intermediate-scale quantum processors now have enough qubits to do limited complex tasks with improved error reduction.”

The value of quantum and types of examples will differ by industry. The levels of end-user industry spending contribution to quantum computing vendor revenue will also evolve. Gartner expects the ranking among the top two verticals that spend the most on quantum computing initiatives — the public sector and finance — will change in 2028.

The public sector is projected to lead all industries in quantum computing spending through 2027. Spending will be driven by a strong desire for nations to gain technical leadership. In 2027, the public sector is expected to spend US$245 million on quantum computing, up from $219 million in 2026.

The banking, finance and insurance (BFI) sector is forecast to overtake the public sector and become the largest source of quantum computing spending from 2028 through to the end of 2030. Spending will be driven by capital availability and massive financial arbitrage, with use cases covering portfolio optimisation, risk modelling and fraud detection. BFI is expected to spend US$289 million in 2028, compared to the public sector with projected spending of $280 million.

Quantum computing market to consolidate by 2030

Given the current market size, Gartner believes the market is overcrowded. Gartner expects that by 2030, an exhaustion of viable commercial revenue will force over 50% of quantum computing startups out of business, as the market rejects qubit modalities that fail to achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC).

Despite this anticipated market consolidation, leading CIOs are making strategic initial investments in 2026 as quantum technologies continue to show early signs of practical business advantage. In addition, many organisations view quantum computing as a potentially transformative technology and are building expertise and readiness now to avoid falling behind.

“CIOs and IT leaders should treat their quantum journey as a multiyear endeavour with the aim of gaining a competitive business advantage over their closest competitors,” Gupta said.

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